By Michael Phillips | TXBayNews
Texas enters 2026 as a Republican-leaning state facing unusual volatility. Internal GOP battles, a freshly redrawn congressional map, rising economic pressures, and renewed Democratic optimism are colliding in ways that could reshape both policy and political power. While Republicans remain favored statewide, the path to November is anything but smooth.
Here are the five biggest political stories — and races — shaping Texas in 2026.
1. A Bruising Republican U.S. Senate Primary
The marquee contest of the cycle is the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, where incumbent John Cornyn faces serious challenges from Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt.
Recent polling shows a fractured field: Paxton hovering around the high-20s, Cornyn and Hunt locked in the mid-20s, and a large bloc of undecided voters — a recipe for a May runoff. The race highlights a broader GOP divide between institutional conservatives, hardline populists, and MAGA-aligned newcomers.
Paxton’s legal history and impeachment saga raise electability concerns among establishment Republicans, while Cornyn faces skepticism from grassroots activists. A prolonged primary fight could weaken the eventual nominee — even in a state that still leans Republican at the federal level.
2. Mid-Decade Redistricting Reshapes the Battlefield
Texas Republicans forced through a controversial mid-decade congressional map in 2025 designed to net as many as five additional GOP seats in the U.S. House. After being temporarily blocked as a racial gerrymander, the map was restored by the U.S. Supreme Court in December for use in 2026, pending full appeals.
Democrats and civil-rights groups argue the map dilutes minority voting power and invites long-term legal trouble. Republicans counter that the redraw reflects population shifts and constitutional authority. Either way, the new lines upend multiple districts, create crowded primaries, and put several incumbents on unfamiliar terrain.
All 38 Texas House seats are on the ballot under the new map — making this one of the most consequential congressional cycles in decades.
3. Economic Anxiety Takes Center Stage
While Texas continues to outperform much of the country economically, voter anxiety is growing. Polls consistently show inflation, property taxes, border security, and grid reliability ranking among top concerns — particularly in suburban and exurban counties.
Republican leaders point to expanded homestead exemptions, disaster tax protections, and business growth as evidence of responsible governance. Critics argue those measures don’t go far enough as housing costs and insurance premiums climb.
With Donald Trump back in the White House, Texas races will also reflect national dynamics, including immigration enforcement and federal-state tensions — potentially reshaping turnout patterns in what is technically a midterm election.
4. School Vouchers Move From Theory to Reality
One of the most significant policy shifts in years begins in earnest in 2026: Gov. Greg Abbott’s Education Savings Account (ESA) program.
The plan provides roughly $10,000 per student for private schooling, tutoring, or alternative education options, with initial funding prioritized for low-income and special-needs families. Supporters see it as a long-overdue expansion of parental choice. Critics warn it will siphon resources from rural and public school districts.
Implementation — including oversight, fraud prevention, and long-term funding — has turned education into a defining campaign issue across multiple statewide races, including comptroller and legislative contests.
5. Democrats See Opportunity — Again
Texas Democrats haven’t won a statewide race since 1994, but 2026 has reignited optimism. GOP infighting, competitive primaries, and national headwinds have encouraged heavy investment in Texas suburbs and urban-adjacent districts.
In the Democratic Senate primary, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett holds a narrow polling edge over State Rep. James Talarico, pitting national visibility against grassroots organizing.
Democrats are also fielding candidates in every Texas House district for the first time in years, targeting suburban seats reminiscent of their 2018 gains. While Republicans remain favored, even modest Democratic gains could affect legislative margins and long-term strategy.
Key 2026 Races to Watch
- U.S. Senate: Cornyn vs. Paxton vs. Hunt GOP primary likely headed to a runoff; general election rated Likely Republican but closer than usual.
- Governor: Abbott seeks a fourth term and remains heavily favored; Democrats hope for coattail effects.
- Attorney General: Open seat as Paxton runs for Senate; crowded GOP field including Chip Roy and multiple state lawmakers.
- U.S. House: All 38 seats up under a GOP-friendly map; several high-profile open and rematch districts.
- Texas House: All 150 seats on the ballot; suburban districts are the main battleground.
Why 2026 Matters
Texas is still a red state — but not a static one. The combination of internal Republican conflict, aggressive redistricting, economic pressure, and education reform makes 2026 one of the most unpredictable election cycles in recent memory.
Primaries on March 3, 2026, potential runoffs on May 26, and the general election on November 3 will determine whether Texas doubles down on its current trajectory — or enters a new, more contested political era.
TXBayNews will continue tracking the races, policies, and power shifts shaping the Lone Star State.
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